There's no obvious threat to Western Australian energy and resources facilities that would justify relocating defence units to ensure their protection, a new study says.
The Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) study says any moves to relocate defence units to remote bases in the north and west would need to be motivated by a strong business case for improved operational effectiveness in credible scenarios.
But it's not obvious those conditions have been made out under current circumstances, it said.
Defence is now conducting a review of its existing force posture to assess what bases - if any - will be needed for the defence force envisaged in the 2009 Defence White Paper.
The review, launched by Defence Minister Stephen Smith in June, will specifically consider whether defence units should be relocated to protect the booming energy and resources sector of north-west Western Australia.
Report analysts Andrew Davies and Mark Thomson said it wasn't clear where any threat to these facilities would come from.
But in general principles, defence could have to respond to a short-notice adverse event, which could require a swift response, possibly from a base nearby.
Or defence could be required to stage a lengthy operation to deter attack, which could usually be mounted from a base further away. In the case of WA, frigates could be dispatched from Fleet Base West at Fremantle.
Dr Davies and Dr Thomson said the current force disposition stemmed from decisions made when the world was very different from today and it was therefore appropriate to re-evaluate.
"Any future decision to move sizeable ADF elements, especially to remote locations, would have to be based on a strong business case for improved operational effectiveness in credible scenarios," they said.
"It's not obvious that that condition is met by today's circumstances."
Australia last made major changes to force posture in the 1980s and 90s, expanding Fleet Base West, creating bare air force bases in north-west WA and Cape York and relocating a fighter squadron to Tindal, Northern Territory.
Defence also relocated an entire army brigade to Darwin.
Dr Davies and Dr Thomson said a long-term investment in the ability to mount air operations from the north made good sense, given Australia's strategic geography.
But it was harder to make a case for the cost effectiveness of the army move, then based on the 1987 Defence White Paper judgement that the most likely threat would come from incursions by small, lightly armed groups.
"The move of almost a third of the Army's deployable forces was arguably disproportionate to the threat," they said.
