Farming groups and the federal opposition are fighting to reverse the ban on the trade that has slumped to record lows.
The Australian live sheep export industry has faced a dramatic decline over the past two decades, culminating in 2024 with its lowest figures on record.
This downturn is reflected in both export volumes and values, as shown by the data and this chart. In 2024, annual live sheep exports fell to just 433,078 head, marking a 33.4 per cent decline from 2023 levels.
Similarly, the financial year 2023-24 recorded the lowest export value on record at $54.7 million, down 40.5 per cent from 2022-23.
This steep decline is part of a long-term trend and has been further accelerated by the federal government’s policy commitment to end live sheep exports by 2028.
Legislation to this effect was passed in 2024, signalling a firm pathway toward the industry’s cessation.
Labor’s policy initially reflected growing concerns about animal welfare, but industry improvement of welfare outcomes saw the party pivot their reason for upholding the ban to delivering on an election promise.
However, the looming ban has also sparked significant opposition, particularly from farming communities and the Liberal and National parties.
The federal Coalition has vowed to reverse the ban should it win the election, due by May.
While this promise may resonate with parts of the electorate, achieving such a reversal faces formidable legislative and political challenges.
Reversing the ban would require not only winning control of the lower house in parliament but also securing enough support in the Senate, where the Coalition’s prospects are complicated by historical voting patterns, the proportional representation system and the influence of minor parties and independents.
The Coalition’s promise to reverse this policy highlights the contentious nature of the issue, but its ability to do so is contingent on overcoming significant political hurdles.
This task is particularly daunting due to the proportional representation system used in Senate elections, which often results in a fragmented chamber where no single party holds a majority.
The Senate consists of 76 members, with 12 senators from each of the six states and two from each of the two territories.
Senators from states serve staggered six-year terms, with half up for election every three years.
Territory senators serve three-year terms. In the 2025 election, 40 seats will be contested: six from each state and all four from the territories.
Currently, the Senate is composed of 30 seats held by the Coalition, 25 by Labor, 11 by the Greens and 10 by independents or minor parties.
The Coalition would need 39 seats to secure a majority and pass legislation without negotiation.
Of the 30 they hold, 16 are up for grabs in 2025 and 14 will remain held until 2028.
This means gaining seven additional seats in 2025 while retaining all the 16 seats they hold.
However, the proportional representation system makes this exceedingly difficult.
Historically, no government has consistently held a majority in the Senate since the introduction of proportional representation in 1949, except for John Howard’s Coalition government from 2005-07.
Even if the Coalition retains its seats and gains several more, it will likely need support from minor parties or independents to reverse the ban.
The Greens are firmly opposed to live sheep exports and would not support such a reversal.
Similarly, Labor senators, who are committed to the ban, would also oppose any legislative attempt to overturn it.
This leaves the Coalition reliant on minor parties like Pauline Hanson’s One Nation or the Jacqui Lambie Network, as well as independents.
While these cross-bench senators may be open to negotiation, their support cannot be guaranteed and would likely come with significant policy concessions.
Historically, Senate elections have favoured diversity, with voters often using their ballot to check the power of the government in the lower house.
Moreover, growing support for minor parties and independents further fragments the Senate, making outright control increasingly rare.
Even in the event of a Coalition victory in the lower house, it would need to either convince enough independents and minor party senators to support its legislation.
This would likely require substantial political concessions from the Coalition, or prompt it to call a double dissolution election, dissolving both houses and triggering an election for all Senate seats.
While this approach increases the chances of gaining a majority, it is a high-stakes option that risks further electoral backlash.
• Matt Dalgleish is co-founder and director of Episode 3 (EP3)
