The recently released US global posture review (GPR) informs important strategic decisions for the Australian defence industry.
US President Joe Biden ordered the review on February 4 2021 and it is a collaborative effort, engaging partners from around the world.
And while no individual nation is mentioned in the media release, it is certain that Australia’s input was keenly sought and offered.
The review, led by Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, was also informed through consultations with US agencies including the National Security Council, the US State Department, the US Agency for International Development and the Office of the Director of National Intelligence.
On November 29 2021, Mara Karlin, then performing the duties of the deputy undersecretary of defense for policy, announced that President Biden had accepted the review recommendations, several of which are notable for Australia.
The review sought to achieve a global posture that aligned with US strategic intentions.
Official US media releases speak of trade-offs, responsible use of military resources, force readiness, allied coordination and strategic priorities.
The Indo-Pacific is clearly a focus and a priority, noting China as America’s primary challenge.
That this remains unsurprising highlights the significance of Australia’s region in the years ahead. Several initiatives were announced, and those relevant to Australia included a promise of enhancing infrastructure, as well as new US rotational aircraft deployments and logistics cooperation.
Dr Karlin hinted at more to come, but details remain classified.
Within this announcement, combined with AUKUS and Australia-US Ministerial Consultations communications in recent months, there are key elements that must be considered by industry.
The increasing importance of the Indo-Pacific is evident.
The US is openly acknowledging the potential for trade-offs in the same paragraphs as discussing responsible use of military resources and the prioritisation of the Indo-Pacific.
This, combined with announcing further cooperation and deployments with Australia, suggests the Australian Defence Force will have a key role to play.
Force readiness implies a need to project force, given there was also a desire in the announcement to speak of deterrence.
Recent information derived from GPR, AUKUS, the Quad and AUSMIN are all pointing towards an increasingly collaborative relationship between Australia and the US.
The partnership has always been strong, but now Australia’s region is the point of the focus for the US above all others.
I believe this could lead to further announcements of off-the-shelf capability acquisitions (commercial) from US suppliers, with the strategic importance requiring backing by enhanced capabilities in the near term.
Recent contract cancellations and alternative acquisitions for submarines and helicopters validate that view.
My fear is that local content and the development of local capability may be a less-important factor within this context.
Due to this potential rise in relatively rapid off-the-shelf acquisitions, Australian businesses would be wise to align themselves with major US Defence companies and remain aware of any changes in public plans from Australia’s Department of Defence regarding future capability needs.
Engaging with the Australian Defence Export Office and the relevant Austrade offices where your business has an exportable service or product is also advisable.
The GPR draws attention to the region, not just Australia. Neighbours and partners in the Indo-Pacific, including the Pacific Island nations, will likely benefit from potential support from Australian businesses.
The Quad member nations (Australia, US, India and Japan) have previously released joint statements highlighting the desire for a free and open Indo-Pacific, and it is likely this diplomatic alignment will lead to business alignment, further trade cooperation, and opportunities for Australian businesses.
This fear of less industry engagement is somewhat mitigated by the high regard in which Australian industry is held within government and defence circles, indicated by the elevation of the defence industry portfolio to senior cabinet.
Furthermore, I know from direct conversations that Defence Industry Minister Melissa Price, and shadow defence industry minister Matt Keogh, regard defence industry as a critical element of Australia’s capability.
And that is perhaps the larger point from the US GPR.
With our region in focus, there will be no shortage of opportunities in defence. It is simply that the nature of those opportunities may change as allied strategy adjusts.
• Kristian Constantinides is the general manager of Airflite, and chairperson of AIDN-WA; the opinions expressed are purely his own
