ANALYSIS: This year’s federal election had some of the tightest races in Australia’s history.
Much of this week’s election coverage has focused on the ‘red wave’ of Labor victories across the nation.
But as the count continues, it’s become increasingly apparent that this year’s federal election had some of the tightest races in Australia’s history.
The Australian Electoral Commission is still thumbing through the votes to determine who ranked where at the ballot box on May 3.
And while there’s a been a clear winner announced in the vast majority of divisions, finding out who’s come second or third is a much more tedious task.
Acting electoral commissioner Jeff Pope said the AEC was in “unprecedented times” as it counted the largest number of ballot papers on record.
“We’re currently doing about 98,000 counts over Australia’s 150 [electoral] divisions,” he told media in a Thursday briefing.
“We have a large number of seats that remain very close.”
So, what’s slowing down the count in some electorates, and how does the AEC determine the overall winners?
Fresh scrutiny
One element that’s important to the count is a process called ‘fresh scrutiny’, which is key to the commission’s mantra that the counting process should be “right, not rushed”.
After election weekend, AEC officers return to re-check the ballot counts from each polling place in their division.
Consequently, a seat result cannot be officially declared until the result is mathematically certain, meaning “the potential number of votes still to be counted must be smaller than the margin in the seat”.
“While fresh scrutiny doesn’t typically provide any additional results information to reflect on, aside from some minor changes, it will provide some further clarity for seats that had their two-candidate-preferred (TCP) contests reset,” Mr Pope said earlier this week.
Hold up … what’s two-candidate-preferred counting?
According to the AEC, “when 18 million Australians cast their votes, the result isn’t always as straightforward as candidate A vs candidate B.”
In a nutshell, the electoral commission holds a two-candidate-preferred (TCP) count on election night to provide an early indication of the likely winner in each House of Representatives seat.
This indicative count is legally required and helps analysts and broadcasters inform the public before the full vote distributions are finalised.
Once first-preference votes are counted, ballot papers are re-sorted into two piles —based on candidates the AEC deems most likely to be the final contenders.
These selections are usually based on historical data like polling and on-the-ground intelligence, and AEC won’t disclose its top picks until voting ends at 6:00 pm local time.
What happens if there’s a dark horse?
In this case, the AEC has to shift gears with a TCP exception, essentially resetting the seat’s two most likely contenders so it can do a more accurate count.
This occurred in about a dozen seats in the 2022 federal election.
According to AEC technical boffin Ethan Moldrich, the commission’s top picks aren’t commonly switched in the lead-up to the election.
“We won’t usually change a TCP selection … unless there is a really compelling reason that we can explain to external stakeholders,” he said.
“As a result, we can sometimes get this wrong … and [this year], we recorded the highest number of TCP exceptions ever before.”
Close seats like Fremantle had to undergo a TCP reset on election night this year, meaning the commission had to take a little longer to finalise the count.
Importantly, TCP counts are only preliminary; the AEC still conducts a complete distribution of preferences in every seat — regardless of whether a candidate wins on primary votes — to ensure the results fully reflect the ballots cast.
Ok, so what about three-candidate-preferred counting?
In rare but closely contested House of Representatives seats, the AEC conducts a three-candidate-preferred (3CP) count to determine which two candidates proceed to the bog-standard TCP count.
This approach is used when it is unclear who will place second or third, typically in tight three-way contests.
In a 3CP count, ballot papers are instead sorted by first preference for the three leading candidates.
Preferences from the remaining candidates are then distributed to these three based on the next available preference, and the resulting tally helps establish which two candidates are most likely to remain in the TCP.
This method was used during the 2022 federal election in the seats of Brisbane and Macnamara.
In Brisbane, the second and third-placed candidates were separated by just 11 votes, making it essential to identify who would be excluded first.
Meanwhile, in Macnamara, the contest between Labor, Liberal and the Greens was too close to call without a 3CP count.
Which seats are engaged in a 3CP count today?
As of May 7, the AEC listed 12 electoral divisions where it was undertaking 3CP counts; an unprecedented number nearly a week on from the election.
“[This represents] the largest number of 3CP counts underway that we’ve ever done before,” Mr Pope told the press on Thursday.
“We’re dealing with some really unpredictable preference flows.”
Here are the divisions where 3CP counts are currently underway:
AEC deputy and national election manager Kath Gleeson said the commission’s current three-way counts fall into different categories.
“The only ones where we’re considering stopping are where there is a clear winner,” she told reporters on Thursday.
In seats like Blaxland, Watson and Maranoa, for example, the AEC has already identified a clear first-place winner.
The latter is David Littleproud’s electorate, and the latest polling data shows the National Party leader holding nearly 60 per cent of the 3CP vote.
In other seats, like Hunter, Mayo, Grey and Fisher, a 3CP count is likely to continue to provide greater clarity on which way the vote falls.
Photo: AEC
While the vast majority of 3CP counts are taking place on Australia’s east coast, there’s still one seat in the west stuck in a three-way count.
The seat of Forrest is one electorate where second place remains unclear.
It’s clear that Liberal candidate Ben Small has retained the blue ribbon seat, thanks to a 4,886-vote lead, but the distinction between second and third place remains far too close to call.
Based on the latest AEC data, there are less than 150 votes separating Independent candidate Sue Chapman and the Labour nominee for Forrest, Tabitha Dowding.
As a reminder, once third place is declared, the electoral commission can move back to its default TCP count and finalise the result.
Photo: AEC
What about Calwell?
There’s a fascinating race still shaping up in Calwell, where 13 candidates are vying for the win.
Given the inherent complexity, Mr Moldrich said the AEC started with a 3CP count, but ultimately abandoned the process because there were so many Independent candidates running close behind the major parties.
Mr Moldrich said the commission may have to wait on the all the incoming votes (which have until 13 days after polling to reach the AEC) to do a full preference distribution and see who’s out of the running in Calwell.
To that end, the division may well be the last called in this year’s federal election.
Photo: AEC
