ANALYSIS: History suggests victory is a formality for WA Labor at the weekend's Rockingham by-election, but the vote could offer a first glimpse into sentiment ahead of the 2025 statewide poll.
Flanked by cabinet colleagues and his wife on May 29, Mark McGowan fronted the media for one last press conference to announce his shock resignation as premier of WA.
“I just don’t have the energy or drive that’s required to continue in the role as premier, or to fight [the 2025] election, which would have been my eighth election as a member of parliament,” he said.
“This job is like no other. After seven elections across nearly three decades, now is the time to step away from the job I have loved.”
It was a move with ramifications everywhere from the halls of parliament where succession plans took shape to the printing house about put onto paper the Business News Power 500, where big red buttons were presumably pressed.
Few saw Mr McGowan’s resignation coming, but the ever-moving state political beast quickly shaped to cover the loss.
Within a day, the frontrunners were emerging to replace the party’s leader of 11 and a half years. At first, with support of the United Workers Union, it looked as though Amber-Jade Sanderson would be the state’s next premier.
Within 24 hours it was clear that a unity ticket with Rita Saffioti would lead long-serving McGowan deputy Roger Cook to the top job.
Tomorrow, just 61 days since his announcement and 20 months from the next state election, the final chapter in the McGowan resignation will come to a close when Rockingham goes to the polls to appoint his parliamentary replacement.
The state’s safest Labor seat, where the incumbent enjoyed a two-party preferred margin above 37 per cent at the last state election, is all but certain to be retained by state’s dominant party.
No other party has held Rockingham since its inception in 1974, and only two people have represented the electorate over that time – Mr McGowan, and his Labor predecessor Mike Barnett.
But the swings of the vote and the issues shaping it offer a compelling case study for things to come.
Business News takes a dive into the state of play in Rockingham.
Replacing the irreplaceable
Magenta Marshall’s campaign as the Rockingham candidate has included a star-studded assortment of party stalwarts – everyone from the Prime Minister Anthony Albanese to Alannah MacTiernan, to Mr Cook, Ms Saffioti and even Mr McGowan have appeared in support.
Ms Marshall is a Rockingham local who worked in Balcatta MP David Michael’s office and was previously a membership engagement officer in the Transport Workers Union – within in the Labor membership’s progressive faction.
Her selection as candidate and performance in the vote at Rockingham, which she is overwhelming favourite to win, will offer insight into the state of play for post-McGowan WA Labor.
Conversations around factional influence over party decisions reared its head during the race for the party’s leadership when United Workers Union (UWU), the most powerful party in the dominant left faction, gave Health Minister Amber-Jade Sanderson its backing over Mr Cook.
Both politicians are aligned to UWU. That Ms Sanderson’s title remains Health Minister and not Premier is an indication that result of the union’s secret ballot did not ultimately deliver the state’s new leader.
It was a unity ticket for Mr Cook and the unaligned now-Treasurer Ms Saffioti which was supported by the right faction progressive Labor and sections of the Labor left that flipped the script in the race.
Mr McGowan was also unaligned, and by the end of his tenure was regarded a unifying figure within the party. But that was not always the case. In August 2019, almost six months to the day before the state recorded its first case of Covid-19, he delivered a keynote speech to a half-empty room at WA Labor’s annual conference after a walkout over a factional dispute.
The pandemic and the government’s response to it led to sky-high popularity and were significant factors in the scale of Labor’s Rockingham majority at the 2021 state election.
Maintaining the level of unity and public favour enjoyed by the former premier in a post-pandemic environment is certain to be a challenge for a newly minted leadership team, with polling suggesting the party’s popularity has slid from 2021's dizzying heights.
All parties have factions, but commentary around factional influence has reared its head in Rockingham, with independent candidate and City of Rockingham deputy mayor Hayley Edwards campaigning against “party lines and factions” and gaining support locally.
Ms Edwards, who was until April a WA Labor member, had initially expressed interest in the Labor candidacy but told Gary Adshead on 6PR that it was made clear the candidate had already been decided by the party.
She then opted for an independent campaign. Business News understands Ms Marshall was ultimately the only formal nominee for the Labor candidacy.
Speaking to Business News in the lead up to polling, Notre Dame Australia professor of politics and international relations Martin Drum said it was not unusual for by-election candidates to ruffle feathers on the ground.
“Candidates for by-elections tend to be chosen centrally, on account of the short turnaround, and often the candidate selected has strong factional support for one area of the party,” he said.
“This can mean consultation with local branches is not thorough or meaningful.
“I’m not well placed to talk about the specific process here, but I’m not surprised to hear that there are noses out of joint locally.”
Ms Marshall did not confirm alignment with progressive Labor when asked by Business News but provided a statement to say she hoped to continue the former premier’s legacy in the electorate.
At 28, Ms Marshall is same age as Mr McGowan and his long-serving predecessor Mr Barnett were when they first won the Rockingham seat.
“I’ve lived my whole life in Rockingham and my husband and I bought our family home in Waikiki because we love this community,” she told Business News.
“I’m so proud to have Mark McGowan’s support to run for Rockingham. Mark McGowan leaves a great legacy of delivering for our community and I hope to continue that legacy.”
Her campaign has been strong but not blemish-free. In the days after pre-polling opened it was revealed the candidate lost her driver’s licence to a drink driving charge in 2021, a mistake she owned up to and has moved on from.
She has fielded a number of questions around Labor’s local legacy, with Ms Marshall’s opponents suggesting the former premier’s community contributions were not as great as his impact on the state level.
The Liberals and independent Ms Edwards have campaigned on the idea that the electorate has been left behind by the party due to its political safety.
Ms Marshall’s campaign rebuttal has generally focused on $100 million worth of upgrades to the Rockingham and Safety Bay senior high schools funded In May’s state budget.
Speaking with Business News in July for a separate story, shortly after returning from the Rockingham by-election campaign trail in her capacity as Acting Premier, Ms Saffioti – a long-time colleague of Mr McGowan – said the criticism of the former Labor leader’s impact on a local level was “harsh”.
“I think sometimes that criticism can be a bit unfair, because the amount of infrastructure required really does depend on the maturity and age of the suburb, and the type of infrastructure,” she said.
“Different areas need different levels of infrastructure during different periods of time.”
Last weekend, as the campaign reached its last leg, Ms Marshall and Mr Cook appeared alongside Sports and Recreation Minister David Templeman to announce a $10 million investment in upgrades to the Mike Barnett Sporting Complex – home of NBL1 team the Rockingham Flames.
“Rockingham deserves to continue to have a local member in state government that’s able to deliver for them,” Ms Marshall said.
“That’s what I’m able to promise.”
A day out, Ms Marshall is most likely to follow in the footsteps of the complex’s namesake as the member for Rockingham.
While it can’t expect to enjoy the same level of support as Mr McGowan did in 2021, the scale of any swing in the electorate will be telling feedback for the Cook government.
Taste of things to come
The significant turnout on a wintery Monday night for a community forum at Rockingham’s Gary Holland Community Centre suggests the WA Liberal Party may have struck a chord through an issues-based campaign targeting the electorate and its voters.
It should come as little surprise to political watchers that the sole item on the agenda that evening was the contentious rollout of Aboriginal cultural heritage laws, introduced at the start of July to a chorus of discontent from political opponents and some in industry.
The party’s candidate in Rockingham is 21-year-old Peter Hudson, an election veteran despite his youth who previously contested the seat of Brand at the 2022 Federal Election for the Liberal Party against the now Federal Resources Minister Madeleine King.
Mr Hudson, a Rockingham local and University of Western Australia business law and economics graduate who runs a resources sector recruiting business, facilitated the discussion that night alongside party leader Libby Mettam and the member for mining and pastoral Neil Thomson.
Liberal powerbroker Nick Goiran was among those in the audience and attended drinks alongside the candidate once formalities wrapped up.
The event addressed the public’s concerns around the government’s legislation through an opposition-tinted lens, but firmly planted the cultural heritage changes as an election issue which shows little sign of abating between now and 2025.
The chorus has only grown louder since. In the weeks following the event, both the WA Liberals and the National Party have committed to scrapping and re-writing the legislation if voted to power in 2025.
The signs suggest that without change, uncertainty around ACH laws will be an issue of contention from now through to 2025.
Mr Hudson’s campaign has also incorporated federal MP Andrew Hastie and senator Linda Reynolds, who appeared alongside the candidate at a press conference calling on the state government to invest more in the region ahead of Rockingham’s role as an AUKUS submarine hub from 2027.
Mr Hastie said candidates like Mr Hudson were the future of the party.
“It’s going to take young people, who are committed to their communities, who are enthusiastic not just for their state but this country, who will rebuild the Liberal Party,” he said.
Mr Hudson said the party was realistic about the electorate but confident of its ability to have an impact.
“We are totally realistic about the challenge we face, and the margin is something to consider,” he told Business News.
“I’ll let the punters speculate as to what percentage needs to be achieved for us to say we had a successful by-election, but the feeling I’ve got on the ground is that Labor should be a lot more worried than they are.
“My feeling is that it’s going to be a lot closer than a lot of people expect.”
Liberal Party has done a body of work since the 2021 state election to implement constitutional change and improve training for prospective candidates like Mr Hudson.
He expects the by-election result to reflect that work to some extent, but said it would also provide a measure of the performance of the government since 2021.
“I expect the by-election to be a measure of the Cook government on a whole range of issues,” he said.
“The feedback I keep getting is that the Cook government isn’t listening, that the people of Rockingham feel ignored, and that they want to see real change.”
The Liberals would be encouraged by a recent phone poll by Utting Research of 1000 Western Australian voters, which sensationally found the minority party held a two-party preferred lead over the government despite the latter’s majority.
But Dr Drum said he was surprised to see the Liberal Party run at all.
“They can’t win, but I think it is about making the Liberal brand more visible in the metro area,” he said.
“If they can get a significant swing towards them, which they should, they will try argue they are gaining momentum.”
A candidate whose self-described motive is to “put the statesman back in politics”, Mr Hudson would not be drawn on whether his name would appear on the ballot paper for the 2025 state election should the by-election vote not go his way on Saturday.
Independence a wildcard
The by-election’s great unknown is the impact of the independent candidate Hayley Edwards, currently the deputy mayor of Rockingham.
Ms Edwards, who is understood to have resigned her Labor Party membership in April and revealed plans to resign from local government responsibilities after October’s elections in May, put her hat in the in the ring for a tilt at state parliament in June.
Having initially expressed interest in the Labor candidacy, Ms Edwards is understood to have reapplied for Labor membership in the hours following the resignation of Mr McGowan.
Just two months later, her independent campaign is looking to upset that party’s rhythm in an electorate it has held for close to 50 years.
No independents ran for the seat of Rockingham in 2021 but the proliferation of teal independent candidates winning seats at the 2022 federal ballot, combined with her political experience, make 42-year-old Ms Edwards’ unaligned campaign an intriguing proposition in Rockingham.
She is the highest profile of three independents to contest for the electorate. A fourth candidate, Janetia Knapp, has no formal affiliation but is informally aligned with the deregistered Western Australia Party.
“Given the suddenness of Mr McGowan’s exit from politics, this seat requires a representative who has leadership qualities, life experience and a track record of local achievements,” Ms Edwards told Business News after announcing her campaign.
“My experience in local government, and as deputy mayor, means I can hit the ground running and quickly make an impact for the community.”
The Edwards campaign has been heavy on putting local interests first, including a push for progress on the Port Rockingham marina – a project the government supports, but is pushing to have funded privately.
Increased funding for community support services, backing a local Murdoch University campus, sporting club and arts infrastructure and environmental protection and conservation are also on the campaign hitlist.
“Rockingham lacks some critical infrastructure and needs significant investment to ensure we can cater for our rapidly growing population,” Ms Edwards said.
She has cited the success of the independent Dai Le over high-profile Labor candidate Kristina Keneally in the federal seat of Fowler in 2022 as inspiration for her campaign in Rockingham and has seemingly attracted significant public support.
“The Premier’s leadership role in steering our state through the pandemic was outstanding so it’s not surprising that he retained the seat with such a large margin in 2021,” she said.
“However, I believe the political landscape is shifting, and this was evident in the last Federal election.
“I think voters understand that having an Independent as the representative for Rockingham in the WA Parliament can benefit Rockingham greatly.
“Independent MPs are answerable to the community they represent and can vote in the best interests of the community, first time, every time. Independents are not part of a political machine and can have great impact for the communities they serve.”
Dr Drum said the presence of an experienced independent had the potential to throw out the balance in Rockingham– a factor with potential ramifications for both parties beyond the by-election.
“This could make for an interesting election,” he said.
“Most independents aim to finish second in the primary vote at least, and then they try to get as many preferences as possible.
“The task is easier when the seat is a safe one. It is not inconceivable that the independent candidate could finish second, which would make for a tighter margin than normal.”
The performance of the highest profile independent in the race for Rockingham will be watched closely, with an eye to the state political landscape in 2025 and beyond.
Ms Marshall, Mr Hudson and Ms Edwards are three of nine candidates to run in the 2023 Rockingham by-election, to be decided on Saturday.
The Rockingham by-election ballot paper runs as follows:
1. Magenta Marshall | WA Labor - Party-appointed frontrunner who previously worked in the office of David Michael.
2. Rae Cottam | Legalise Cannabis Western Australia Party - A City of Rockingham councillor and Wongutha woman campaigning on the decriminalisation of cannabis.
3. Peter Hudson | Liberal Party - 21-year-old Liberal candidate who previously contested the Federal seat of Brand against Madeleine King.
4. Janetia Knapp | No formal party affiliation - A Goreng/Minang woman and artist informally affiliated with the deregistered Western Australia Party. Ran for the party in the Federal seat of Fremantle in 2021.
5. Madeleine De Jong | The Greens WA - A former staffer to Federal Greens Senator Jordon Steele-John who is campaigning against the AUKUS plan to bring nuclear submarines to Rockingham.
6. Clive Galletly | Independent - A remedial masseur and independent candidate running on a wide-ranging policy platform.
7. Hayley Edwards | Independent - The highest profile independent, a former member of the WA Labor party and current deputy mayor of the City of Rockingham.
8. Mike Crichton | Australian Christians - A former radio presenter at 98.5 Sonshone FM who ran for the Federal Senate in 2022.
9. Peter D Dunne | Independent - An independent candidate running on a socialist revolution platform.
