OPINION: Population growth in WA is again the centre of attention following the release of data showing the state is likely to break the 3 million threshold at some point over the summer.
Population growth in Western Australia is again the centre of attention following the release of data showing the state is likely to break the 3 million threshold at some point over the summer.
Figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics show WA’s population grew by 3.1 per cent to 2.95 million people in the year to March 2024, with net overseas migration accounting for nearly three quarters of the extra 89,000 people over the year.
This growth was, by some margin, the fastest of all states and territories.
WA has long relied on population growth as a key source of skilled workers, and as a fundamental driver of the state’s economic growth and prosperity.
Net migration flows into WA typically respond more strongly to global economic demand and rising commodity prices than other states due to the strength of WA’s resources sector.
But there is a concern the state’s housing market, services and infrastructure may not be able to keep pace with the rising population numbers.
Rising rents across all parts of the state, driven by persistently low vacancy rates from a lack of new housing supply, do little to allay these concerns.
An ageing population can add to economic costs, principally through the increased demand for quality health and aged care services.
The 65-and-over age cohort has been the fastest growing population group in WA for more than a decade.
This shows up in the state’s dependency ratio – the non-working age population as a share of the working age population aged 15 to 64 – which rose from 46 per cent to above 54 per cent between 2010 and 2021.
However, the working age population inflows into WA over the past two years have driven the dependency ratio to below 53 per cent.
And while the baby boomer generation is approaching retirement, they are generally healthier and more active than previous generations and have a greater interest in maintained workforce participation.
Particularly given the high demand for skilled workers, it’s clear that WA’s population and skills strategy needs to support older workers who wish to remain in work for longer.
One of the strongest imperatives for the WA government is the need to attract and retain working age families in the regions.
We know that population growth is an essential element of the sustainability and economic resilience of WA’s regions.
Still, most population projections remain pessimistic when it comes to WA’s regional population growth.
Migrant workers tend to be younger and are typically attracted to urban centres, and those who were raised in the regions tend to move into the cities to study or to embark on careers.
Perth’s resident population grow by 3.6 per cent in the past year, but the rest of the state grew by only 1.4 per cent.
Such modest regional population growth highlights the urgency of strategies related to jobs growth, industry diversification, service provision and infrastructure development in WA’s regional centres.
The WA government will need to press ahead with strategies to increase childcare services, school places, tertiary education and job opportunities, as well as the supply of affordable housing.
- Professor Alan Duncan is director of the Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre at Curtin University
