Everyone has been obsessed with the minerals needed to power the next generation of data centres, batteries and weapons. Over the last few years, lithium, rare earths, antimony and tungsten have all taken turns in the critical minerals spotlight as governments scramble to secure supply chains and shore up their defence capabilities. But while the world was busy hunting for the metals of the future, something far more fundamental was quietly becoming strategic: the humble fertiliser.
Suddenly, phosphate, the stuff that helps grow the world’s food, has been thrust from the farm shed onto the geopolitical chessboard. Global supply chain shocks, exacerbated by maritime choke points like the Strait of Hormuz, have laid bare the fragility of the world’s food supply. Nations are scrambling for alternative supplies, with the Middle East accounting for close to 30 per cent of global fertiliser exports.
The downstream effects have compounded the problem. As sulphur prices surged due to Middle Eastern disruption, so too have input costs for phosphate processing operations globally.
An even bigger structural shock has come from China, where the government has effectively told major phosphate producers to suspend exports until further notice. With China accounting for about 40 per cent of global phosphate production, the move has taken a sizeable chunk of supply out of the international market.
This new world order for phosphate has created profound opportunities for aspiring Western producers in jurisdictions outside the traditional supply hubs to supply the fertiliser at a premium.
Morocco, which holds the world's largest phosphate reserves by a colossal margin at 50 billion metric tonnes, or over 68 per cent of the global total, is looking to cash in. Similarly, the US is expanding its operations through major producers Mosaic and Nutrien, locking in alternative supply to feed an increasingly hungry Americas market that needs new supply now.
Perhaps nowhere is this new reality more evident than in Brazil. With its booming agricultural sector, the South American country is one of the world's largest fertiliser consumers and importers, leaving it desperately exposed to the kind of global supply disruptions that have supercharged fertiliser prices to around US$900 (A$1300) per tonne from pre-COVID levels of around US$300/t (A$430/t).
One company that has read the tea leaves is ASX-listed producer Aguia Resources. The recent developer-turned-producer has just transitioned its flagship Três Estradas phosphate project in southern Brazil to commercial operations, marking a monumental shift after years of painstaking permitting and development work.
The project sits squarely in Brazil's agricultural heartland, where local farmers face acidic soils and a heavy reliance on imported fertilisers.
Aguia is producing its premium “Pampafos” natural organic phosphate fertiliser by selectively mining phosphate ore, blending it to target around 12 per cent phosphorus pentoxide, then drying and grinding it into a market-ready product.
The early numbers for Aguia suggest the plant is already running ahead of expectations - a rarity in the mining game. Within just six weeks of commissioning, the company says it has locked in a whopping $2.3 million in Pampafos sales, pointing to a healthy appetite for locally produced fertilisers. The plant itself has a capacity of more than 200,000 tonnes per annum, giving the company plenty of room to grow those revenues as production ramps up.
Aguia says it has already locked in non-binding Memorandums of Understanding (MoU) covering a large portion of its initial output, with figures around 40,000 to 44,000 tonnes of sales, moving to longer-term ramp-up towards 100,000 tonnes per annum and beyond.
Policy is also starting to line up behind the story. Brazil's federal Senate recently approved the Fertiliser Industry Development Program, or Profert, with a R$10 billion (A$2.6 billion) support package to expand local supply and reduce its heavy reliance on imports. For a producer already selling into Brazil's agricultural heartland, in a country that imports a huge share of its fertiliser needs, Aguia's local, reliable and cheaper supply appears a powerful proposition.
Aguia Resources’ 200,000tpa phosphate plant in the state of Rio Grande do Sul, Southern Brazil.
Back on home soil, another ASX-compatriot, Avenira, is jostling for Australia's excess domestic supply by rolling out plans for what could be one of the country's biggest high-grade phosphate resources in the Top End.
The company's Wonarah phosphate project in the Northern Territory already hosts a JORC resource of 812 million tonnes at 18 per cent phosphorus pentoxide for roughly 146Mt of contained phosphorus.
Avenira says it is pursuing a clever multi-stage development strategy that begins with a direct shipping ore operation at Wonarah for early revenue. The initial phase targets pre-strip activities in the December quarter of this year and first shipments in the first half of 2027. The project sits neatly between Tennant Creek and Mount Isa, with access to transport and water infrastructure.
If all goes well on the DSO front, the plan could quickly progress towards larger-scale beneficiation to produce a higher-grade phosphate ore by 2030. Dependent on continued sky-high prices, a third phase ramp-up could be rolled out in the next decade to produce high-value downstream products such as yellow phosphorus and thermal phosphoric acid for the burgeoning battery and electronics markets - a seriously long-term vision for a resource that can stretch well beyond the next decade if needs be.
To fund this transition, the company recently launched a three-for-two renounceable rights issue to raise up to $49 million. The raising marks a central step in Avenira's move from developer to producer, providing the balance sheet to turn Wonarah from a permitted project into an operating mine. Tellingly, major shareholder Hebang Biotechnology, which tipped in $8.8 million in July, has confirmed it will participate fully in the rights issue to maintain its 60 per cent voting interest, providing a solid vote of confidence from its cornerstone backer.
Meanwhile, in North Africa, PhosCo is navigating what it describes as a “bumpy road” in Tunisia's Northern Phosphate Basin as it works to monetise a potentially world-class fertiliser hub. The company says it is well on its way to developing its wholly owned Gasaat project, a nearly zero strip ratio beast in an emerging phosphate jurisdiction.
Gasaat is classified as a marine carbonate-hosted sedimentary deposit. Simply put, the phosphate formed in ancient marine sediments and now sits within a layered rock sequence thatcan often traces for miles and miles. Recent drilling at its newest KM and KH prospects has returned impressive first-pass results, including shallow hits up to 53m grading a hefty 22.3 per cent phosphorus oxide from 53m.
A 2022 scoping study on Gasaat forecasts a long-life, 1.5 million tonnes per annum concentrates operation, generating annual net cashflow of US$93 million (A$133 million) in its first 10 years, with capital expenditure of just US$170 million (A$240 million). Estimated operating costs of just US$79 (A$113) per tonne reflect the project’s impressively low strip ratio, high-grade mineralisation and Tunisia’s low-cost operating environment.
Additionally, recent metallurgical tests have been even more encouraging, producing premium phosphate concentrate grades of up to 34 per cent diphosphorus pentoxide using a simplified single-stage flotation process. The company says these results represent the 'highest concentrate grades ever' achieved at Gasaat and open the door for substantial price premiums for its rock. With a new scoping study due to drop any day and today’s surging fertiliser prices, the old economics could be in for a serious upgrade when recalculated against today’s far stronger prices.
To the continent's south in Angola, Minbos Resources is also in the final throws of developing its Cabinda phosphate project to support agriculture and food security in a region that currently imports nearly all its fertiliser. The company is in advanced stages of constructing a fertiliser plant to produce and supply its branded “Prosper Primeiro” fertiliser for Angola's domestic needs and regional export markets.
A definitive feasibility study (DFS) for the project outlined a 20-year mine life with an average annual EBITDA of US$55 million and a payback period of just 4.8 years. The low-cost development carries a modest price tag of US$50 million (A$73M) for a 200,000-tonne-per-year phosphate rock operation, with the plant cleverly designed to double its output to 400,000tpa in a second phase without breaking the bank.
Crucially, Minbos appears to have secured funding to enter production. In March, the company locked in a US$16 million (A$23M) debt facility with the Industrial Development Corporation of South Africa to support second-phase construction. It has since executed the final security agreement and submitted its first drawdown request, with the company stating that all remaining construction costs are now fully funded.
Looking further ahead, Minbos is also working on a secondary initiative, the Capanda green ammonia project, which aims to produce nitrogen fertiliser feedstock using Angola’s super low-cost renewable hydropower immediately adjacent to its Cabinda project in country.
While plenty of companies are focused on digging up phosphate, a few specialist Australian players are also working to make the dwindling supply stretch further.
Australian-based RLF AgTech sits in this fertiliser-efficiency sweet spot, developing advanced liquid crop nutrition products built around its proprietary Plant Proton Delivery Technology (PPDT).
Rather than simply throwing more nutrients at a crop, the technology is designed to improve nutrient availability and uptake, potentially allowing growers to maintain or increase yields while reducing their reliance on conventional bulk fertilisers.
RLF says its programs can cut traditional soil-applied fertiliser use by around 20 per cent, while some of its phosphate-containing products are specifically designed to improve the efficiency and availability of phosphorus around the root zone.
Data from a recent field survey has added muscle to the company's pitch.
In a 2025 Western Australian wheat trial, RLF's Complete Crop Nutrition Program lifted yields across four different soil types, with increases ranging from 11.3 per cent to a headline 63 per cent improvement.
The strongest response came in a nutrient-constrained soil, where yields jumped from 1.88 tonnes per hectare to 3.07t/ha. Across the trial, RLF reported an average yield uplift of 32 per cent, an average $212/ha improvement in net margin and a 149 per cent return on investment. While the numbers are company-reported trial results rather than a guarantee of commercial performance, they hint at some serious economic upside from squeezing substantially more value out of every dollar spent on crop nutrition.
And this is where RFL's technology could come into its own. The world's farmers may not need more phosphate fertiliser - they just need to squeeze more bang from every tonne they spread.
If phosphate and fertiliser supplies continue to feel the squeeze, this vulnerable market will need disruption. Whether it comes from getting new domestic production out of the ground or technologies that help farmers make every kilogram of nutrient work harder, every bit matters when it comes to securing food supply - a problem that could prove every bit as important as the prominent energy crisis emerging from the Middle East.
Is your ASX-listed company doing something interesting? Contact: matt.birney@businessnews.com.au
