The national fertility rate has fallen significantly during the past 50 years, dropping from 2.15 births per woman in 1975 to 1.48 births per woman in 2024.
The national fertility rate has fallen significantly during the past 50 years, dropping from 2.15 births per woman in 1975 to 1.48 births per woman in 2024.
That data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics suggests numbers well below the replacement rate of 2.1 births per woman needed to maintain population levels without migration, which could have far reaching social and economic consequences.
Delayed parenthood is one major factor behind this decline.
Australians now have children later in life, with the median age of mothers now 32.1 years and fathers 33.9 years.
Women are now most likely to give birth aged 30-34, while births to women under the age of 25 have dropped sharply.
Evidence shows that, when people start families later, they often end up having fewer children overall; not to mention the growing number of people who do not have children at all.
Financial pressure is another major factor shaping if and when Australians have children. For many people, starting a family depends on whether they can balance work and other commitments.
Young people today face high living costs and income instability.
Housing affordability remains a key barrier. Many young couples aim to buy a home before having children, but surging house prices have pushed that goal further out of reach.
The latest Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre report on housing affordability shows median house prices in capital cities have jumped by $373,000 (59 per cent) since 2019.
Childcare costs are another major concern, with Australians’ out-of-pocket childcare expenses among the highest among countries in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development.
According to the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission, an average Australian family with two children spends 16 per cent of their budget on childcare, compared to the OECD average of 9 per cent.
And job insecurity significantly adds to the strain.
The BCEC’s Youth in Focus report, published in March 2025, found that workers under 25 were concentrated in casual, lower-skilled industries such as accommodation, food services and retail, with far less job stability and flexibility than older workers.
The rise in women’s education and workforce participation has also reshaped family planning, with many delaying childbirth to establish their careers or achieve financial stability.
A long-term decline in fertility can have a significant impact beyond families.
Fewer births today means fewer workers entering the labour force in the coming decades, increasing pressure on industries already experiencing skills shortages.
Added to this, a shrinking working-age population must also support a growing number of retirees, with potential negative consequences for taxation, government spending and productivity growth.
Australia’s lawmakers have seen the writing on the wall, intermittently introducing several policies to support fertility and family formation during the past two decades.
The Howard government introduced the First Child Tax Refund in 2002 and the Baby Bonus from 2004-2014, which provided a universal upfront payment to new parents.
In 2011, Paid Parental Leave was introduced to support working parents with 18 weeks of paid leave at the minimum wage. This has since been expanded to 20 weeks and will increase to 26 weeks by next year.
However, the data shows financial incentives are no longer enough.
Modern family planning now depends on a combination of factors, including financial security, stable employment, affordable housing and accessible childcare.
To address this, Australia needs a more integrated policy approach that supports all parents, especially women, in employment, while reducing the cost and risk of having children and growing families.
This includes further extending paid parental leave beyond 26 weeks, making childcare genuinely affordable, improving access to secure family housing, and ensuring flexible, high-quality jobs for parents returning to the workforce.
Australia desperately needs a comprehensive policy response to lift fertility rates; and fast.
Otherwise, we might find it has come too late.
• Dr Lili Loan Vu is research fellow at the Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre
