OPINION: Labor is sitting pretty in WA, but the party is considering who provides the best future.
It’s difficult to arrive at a level of certainty when analysing the machinations around who might replace Roger Cook as Labor Party leader, whenever that time arrives.
There’s the force of nature, high-profile retail politician in Rita Saffioti.
Or the understated, lesser known and equally ambitious Amber-Jade Sanderson.
More importantly, however, is the factional foreplay that precedes any decision to anoint Labor’s king or queen.
On pages four to six of this magazine edition, significant figures in Labor’s left and right factions gave Business News an insight into where they believed support currently sat, should a leadership showdown occur.
By the end of a week’s worth of conversations, I arrived at the conclusion the prize of leadership was Ms Sanderson’s to lose, because she appears to have the numbers needed in Labor’s caucus.
However, this column would like to throw up a curve ball just in case it eventuates; that curve ball is John Carey.
One of the people I spoke to was adamant the left faction’s largest voting bloc, the United Workers Union, remained split after what happened in 2023, when Mark McGowan departed and the union’s support was divided between its own high-profile members: Ms Sanderson and Mr Cook.
A majority chose Ms Sanderson before Mr Cook secured the backing from another left grouping, the Australian Manufacturing Workers’ Union, and won the contest.
Three years on, it’s more likely that Labor MPs from both the UWU and the AMWU would combine their 33 caucus votes and deliver the leadership, and possibly the premiership, to Ms Sanderson.
Unless, of course, the UWU splits again.
“Is there a dark horse in John Carey coming through?” I asked one left faction operative.
The response was intriguing.
They told me that in their opinion Mr Carey, currently the minister for planning, housing and health infrastructure, might be tempted to chase the position of leader or deputy under a deal with Ms Saffioti.
That would require the right faction of the party, which has 25 caucus votes, to go along with the plan to deny Ms Sanderson the top job.
To pull that strategy off, Mr Carey would need to be working his caucus colleagues. As an extremely busy minister, his time is limited.
For someone in the left to split the vote they would need to be confident of it working out in their favour, particularly if the move meant supporting Ms Saffioti, an unaligned outsider.
It would be a big gamble and result in a lot of bad blood.
For the record, a second influential member of the left said if the question of leadership came down to “an argument between Rita and Amber then I wouldn’t expect any division”.
Supporters of Ms Saffioti insisted she was currently the best choice for the leadership role and that union backing was only one factor.
In the Labor Party, they said, the cream rose to the top despite factional allegiances and provided Mr McGowan and former premier Geoff Gallop as evidence.
“If someone is very good at what they do then it’s hard to ignore them,” one said.
Regardless of factions, they added, MPs generally gravitated towards the person they believed would best help them hold onto their job.
One thing that all sides of the debate seemed to agree on was that if Ms Saffioti didn’t become the party’s next leader, she’d be unlikely to stick around.
The former dux of Kelmscott Senior High School came to Labor politics in a less-than-conventional manner.
She was working inside the treasury department when a job came up as an economic adviser to then leader of the opposition, Mr Gallop.
The Liberal government of the day had to sign off on her appointment.
Since entering parliament in 2008, Ms Saffioti has been all about building things, as foreshadowed in her maiden speech.
“Our plan is to build world-class sporting, entertainment and cultural facilities,” she told parliament.
“To create a foreshore development and continue to modernise and expand our public transport system.”
Ms Sanderson has built her reputation advancing social reforms such as the voluntary assisted dying legislation and changes to surrogacy and abortion laws.
“I am, and always have been, a strong believer in choice,” Ms Sanderson said in her 2017 inaugural speech as the MP for Morley.
A decision about Labor’s next leader, whether it’s sooner or later, could lead to a rare time of upheaval for the party and the government.
