ANALYSIS: WA Labor’s success in the Rockingham by-election was a “solid” victory, according to Premier Roger Cook, despite a large swing away from the party in what was its strongest-held electorate.
ANALYSIS: WA Labor’s success in the Rockingham by-election was a “solid” victory, according to Premier Roger Cook, despite a large swing away from the party in what was its strongest-held electorate.
As widely tipped, Magenta Marshall will enter the parliament as the third Member for Rockingham the electorate’s near-50-year history after claiming just under half of the primary vote.
On a two-party preferred basis, WA Labor maintained its stronghold electorate with a 65.2 per cent majority over the Liberal candidate Peter Hudson.
But the result represents a strong swing away from the dizzying popularity enjoyed by former Premier Mark McGowan in his former electorate, where he won 82.75 per cent of the primary vote and 87.72 per cent on a two-party preferred basis in 2021.
So strong was the hold of Mr McGowan through the pandemic era that local pub The Swinging Pig once famously gave free meals to people named Mark when Covid restrictions were lifted in WA in June 2020.
Swing of a very different kind – 22.5 per cent on a two-party preferred basis – was a significant factor in the weekend’s poll.
Matching the lofty heights of the former Premier, who in a Painted Dog Research poll at the height of the pandemic in September 2020 enjoyed a statewide popularity rating of 91 per cent, was going to be a challenge for any candidate. The last time Labor failed to win the Rockingham electorate on primary vote was 1996, when Mr McGowan was first elected.
Mr Cook said the government was pleased with the result and hadn’t take anything for granted in Rockingham.
“This is a solid result for Labor, and it’s one of which we are very proud,” he said.
“We knew that with any by-election, with its own unique set of circumstances, with issues that are impacting on the local, state and federal level, that it was always going to be tough.
“The fact we produced such a solid result was testament to the fact that we had a wonderful candidate in Magenta Marshall.”
Ms Marshall’s campaign was hotly contested, particularly by the presence of experienced independent and City of Rockingham deputy mayor Hayley Edwards and the seemingly re-energised Liberals represented by 21-year-old campaign veteran Peter Hudson.
Issues at the fore included changes to the Aboriginal cultural heritage act and cost of living pressures, with Labor’s political opponents also suggesting that Mr McGowan’s legacy was greater on a state level than a local one.
The Liberals claimed the swing against Labor as a success of their own, with leader Libby Mettam full of praise for the candidate Peter Hudson and thanks for Liberal voters.
“The WA Liberal Party has seen a two-party preferred swing of more than 20 per cent – this is the best result in Rockingham for the WA Liberal Party in more than a decade and I would like to sincerely thank our candidate, Peter Hudson,” she said.
Mr Hudson attracted 17.7 per cent of the primary vote, up from the 9.8 per cent achieved by Michael McClure for the Liberal Party in 2021.
The independent Ms Edwards won 16 per cent of the primary vote – an outcome which could foreshadow the emergence of an independent movement at the 2025 state election.
No independents ran in Rockingham in 2021, but the results of the 2022 federal election – where a teal wave emerged across the country – combined with levels of support achieved by Ms Edwards at the by-election show there could be appetite for politically savvy independent candidates in the state ballot in 2025.
The teal colouring of the independent candidate movement federally in 2022 was thought to be a combination of green and Liberal blue. By design or coincidence, Ms Edwards’ campaign material at Rockingham was heavy on purple – a combination of red and green.
Ms Edwards is a former WA Labor member who initially expressed interest in running as the government’s candidate in the seat.
“I was always realistic about the chances of winning being slim, but the energy in the air was that locals are seeking a change, in such a short time to have a swing like we did, is something to be really proud of,” she said in a Facebook post.
Ms Marshall’s election as the Member for Rockingham delivers a significant milestone to the WA Parliament, which for the first time in history will achieve gender parity in the lower house.
“It’s an honour to have been elected as the Member for Rockingham, and it’s an honour to be the first woman to represent Rockingham,” she said.
Just over 73 per cent of eligible residents cast votes in the 2023 Rockingham by-election.
