Earnings from resources and energy exports are predicted to continue to grow at a strong pace for at least the next five years, but economic growth more generally looks set to remain sluggish in the near term.
The Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics' (BREE) March quarter report, released today, forecasts that by 2016/17 resource sector export earnings will be a record $225 billion, underpinned by solid increases in liquefied natural gas (LNG), iron ore and thermal coal.
That's also a sharp increase from $190 billion in the 2011 calendar year.
BREE chief economist Quentin Grafton says a large slice of Australia's future export strength will come from the LNG sector.
"The growth in Australia's LNG industry over the next five years is underpinned by over $175 billion worth of investment to expand capacity in Western Australia, Queensland and the Northern Territory," Professor Grafton said in a statement.
Export volumes for LNG are forecast to increase from 20 million tonnes in 2011/12 to more than 60 million tonnes in 2016/17, while export earnings for LNG are also forecast to treble over the same period to $30 billion.
Treasurer Wayne Swan was heartened by the report, saying it points to an extremely bright future for Australia's resources sector.
He said the strength of this sector was one factor that put Australia in a better position than virtually all advanced economies to withstand any further deterioration in the global economy.
The report comes days after the Senate endorsed the government's 30 per cent minerals resource rent tax (MRRT) on big coal and iron ore profits.
"These figures really should put an end to (Opposition Leader) Tony Abbott's irresponsible Chicken Little routine once and for all," Mr Swan said.
"Under the MRRT, Australia's resources sector will continue to go from strength to strength to strength, and all Australians will share in the benefits of the mining boom, not just a fortunate few."
BREE also expects increased production and expanded infrastructure capacity will result in increases for iron ore (62 per cent), metallurgical coal (47 per cent), thermal coal (65 per cent), copper ores and concentrates (77 per cent) and alumina (29 per cent) over the next five years.
Other data released on Wednesday was not so upbeat.
National figures showed demand for workers through internet-based job advertisements eased slightly in January, although they remained reasonably solid for the mining states of Queensland, Western Australia and the Northern Territory.
Separately, the annualised rate of the Westpac-Melbourne Institute leading index of economic activity was 2.6 per cent.
The index, which indicates the likely pace of activity three to nine months into the future, sits below its long-term trend of three per cent.
However, revisions show the index tumbled to just 0.7 per cent in November, which aside from the 2008/09 downturn, was the weakest outcome since the post-GST soft patch in 2000/01.
"The situation has improved from that low point, but the leading index continues to point to sluggish growth at best in the early part of 2012," Westpac senior economist Matthew Hassan said.
He does not expect this, or the recent patchiness of the labour market, will be enough to draw an interest rate cut from the Reserve Bank of Australia in April, although one may be considered.
However, further evidence of sub-trend growth, a weakening labour market, along with Westpac's expectation that conditions will deteriorate aboard, could see a cut in May or June, Mr Hassan said.
