Billions of export dollars look set to keep rolling in at a healthy clip this financial year, despite an uncertain global backdrop.
Australia's resource and energy exports are still expected to rake in a record $206 billion in 2011/12, a 15 per cent increase on the previous year.
This is even after the federal government's Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics (BREE) downgraded the projection by four per cent in the past three months because of rising risks to global growth.
"Despite the uncertainty surrounding the outlook for some European economies, Australia's export volumes for most commodities have remained strong in the second half of 2011, while prices for many commodities have remained at historically high levels," BREE executive director and chief economist Quentin Grafton said, releasing the bureau's December quarter report today.
At the same time, the government's commodity forecaster, the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES), expects farm exports to be $34.5 billion in 2011/12, a six per cent increase compared to a year earlier.
Including fisheries and forestry exports, that forecast stretches to $38.4 billion.
ABARES acting deputy executive director Terry Sheales said although OECD economic growth was set to slow considerably, demand for agricultural products in the Asian region is expected to remain strong.
"Australia exported more than 60 per cent of its farm exports to the Asian region in 2010/11," Dr Sheales said in releasing his bureau's December quarter report.
Among the biggest expected export increases this year are a 210 per cent spike in rice, a 65 per cent jump in raw cotton and a 21 per cent rise in canola.
Mainstays wheat and barley are predicted to rise three per cent and 12 per cent, respectively.
BREE's forecasts included a 14 per cent rise in thermal coal exports, a 13 per cent increase in iron ore and gold up 12 per cent.
Metallurgical coal exports are projected to rise seven per cent.
"The increase in iron ore and thermal coal export volumes reflects recent expansions to mine and infrastructure capacity, while metallurgical coal exports are forecast to be higher as production conditions improve in Queensland," Professor Grafton said.
The upbeat expectations came as National Australia Bank released a new monthly business survey, including the bank's latest economic forecasts.
It predicts 3.7 per cent growth in 2011/12 and 3.8 per cent in 2012/13, supported by stronger consumption and investment growth, as seen in the latest national accounts.
The figures are stronger than the forecasts of 3.25 per cent for 2011/12 and 2012/13 by Treasury and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), although their projections pre-dated the national accounts.
Still, the report showed that business conditions improved only slightly in November and confidence was unchanged, despite taking into account the first of the RBA's two recent interest rate cuts.
Slightly older data showed home building starts fell for the third quarter in the space of a year, dropping 6.8 per cent in the three months to September. The activity was down 11.5 per cent from a year earlier.
Private-sector housing starts dipped to the lowest level since March 2009, drawing renewed calls from the Housing Industry Association for the government to take urgent action to boost the supply of new housing.
